“Will Iran’s ‘strategic patience’ run out?”

Will Israel get its wider war?

What in hell are they doing there? Green Berets training local militias, al–Tanf, Syria, 2020. (William Howard/ Wikimedia Commons.)

Muhammad Sahimi

3 FEBRUARY—Israel’s campaign of indiscriminate bombing and destruction of Gaza with the goal of destroying Hamas has been faltering—even as its defense minister, Yoav Gallant, announces that the Israel Defense Forces will now proceed southward to the Egyptian border. At writing,  27,019 people have been killed, including more than 11,422 children and 5,822 women. Two-thirds of all victims, in other words, have been women and children. In addition 66,139 people have been injured, and 1.92 million people have been displaced.

This story told in grim statistics is very far from over. It is estimated that at least an additional 7,000 people are buried under the rubble in Gaza. The United Nations has warned that at least one-quarter of Gaza’s population faces starvation. At least 25,000 Palestinian children have lost one parent, or both, during the war.  

But the goal of destroying Hamas is still not in sight. Even the Biden administration appears finally to realize that Hamas cannot be eliminated. John Kirby, spokesman for the United States National Security Council, said a month ago today, “We believe it is absolutely an attainable goal for Israel military forces to degrade and to defeat Hamas’ ability to conduct attacks inside Israel. It could be done militarily.  [But] are you going to eliminate the ideology? No. And, are you likely to erase the group from existence? Probably not.”

This is the same administration that, two weeks after the war began, declared that “Hamas must be eliminated.” Perhaps reflecting an unstated ambivalence within the Biden administration, the U.S. has also withdrawn one of its two aircraft carrier battle groups, moving the USS Gerald Ford out of the eastern Mediterranean, where it had deployed since 7 October.

The Netanyahu regime, shocked to discover that the total security Israelis assumed they had achieved is an unrealizable dream, simply cannot read its post–7 October circumstances for what they are. It now displays an unmistakable desire not to deescalate its barbaric campaign in Gaza but to turn it into a wider regional war. And as amply demonstrated by decades of aggressive diplomacy, mis– and disinformation, covert operations, sabotage, assassinations, and the like, a war with Iran is Israel’s highest strategic priority.

Various provocations on Israel’s part are already evident. But something else has also become clear these past months. The Islamic Republic has no intention of being drawn into a pointless confrontation with the Zionist state—or, still less, with the U.S.—unless it is directly attacked and open conflict becomes a matter of national defense. This reflects a policy the leadership in Tehran calls variously “revolutionary patience” or “strategic patience.” We should all appreciate the wisdom of it.

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